Prufrock wrote:Las Vegas has Indianapolis -7.5, and Saints -4.5 at the moment.  We will see how the lines move this week.

Martin

Wow, that's a lot of respect the Jets way. I think most were suprised the way they handled the Chargers. Two things, the Chargers were like 28th in run defense and the Jets love to run; and the Jets defense is #1 statistically vs the Pass (and the Chargers haven't run well all year). I think a lot of prognosticators missed those two stats.  Made for a pretty shocking win!
If I were a Jets fan I'd try to get the bookie to lay 9.5 or 10; it might be a closer game than anyone thinks!
Line for the Saints has already inched up a half point, the money is already coming in on New Orleans.  Vikings are too good for it to go up 7, I suspect, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit six/six half.
BTW, Favre will keep the line on the Saints/Vikes game down.  People are so enamored of him that they won't even need points to put money on the Vikings, they'll bet on the Horned Ones just because they like Bret.

Mike B.

Las Vegas currently has Indianapolis at -8 and the Saints at -4.

For those of you not used to sports betting, the above line means that if you placed a wager on Indianapolis to win -  Indy would have to win the game by more than 8 points for you to win your bet.  In other words, Indy is favored by 8 points and the Saints by 4.

I think the Saints line show exactly what Badmike has said above.  That this game seems to be even but the home team usually gets 3 points for being at home.

Martin

Tharizdun wrote:It also means that if you bet the Vikings "To win" and don't take the points you get a much better payout. I won quite a bit of $$$ the 1st year the Patriots won the Super Bowl cause It was a 14 point spread.

The Jets line looks like what you'd expect but after watching them play the past few weeks I'm inclined to think it might be a pretty close game.

Tharizdun,

I thought you had to take the points.  If I bet $100 on Indy to win and Indy does win by 9 points or more than I get $100 plus winnings ($100) plus the vig back.  If I take Indy "to win" how much do I win?

Martin

ashmire13 wrote:Sounds like your betting is different to ours (or I'm confused.) You can bet on scores over here, (and a plethora of nonsense in a match) but everything has odds, so you know what you'll win and essentially its easiest to bet on a winner.
F'rinstance, Vikings may have been 25 to 1 to win the SB.
That'd pay out £25 for every £1 you bet. You could then add in how many TD's, points difference as an accumalator, giving you increased odds rolling over.   Do your bets have odds like that?

Yes they do.  You can even bet on whether or not the opening kick will be run back for a touchdown!  The bet would have an odds structure similar to what your saying.  However, when betting on a team to win a game there isn't an odds structure.  It's just a straight bet.  I bet $100 dollars on Indy to win the game this weekend.  So I give the casino(sportsbook) $110 (100 bet plus the vig[fee]) and Indy must win the game by 9 points or better for me to collect $210 dollars (Bet plus winnings plus fee).  

Why does Indy have to win by 9 points?  Because the Sports experts that work for the casinos think Indy is the better team by 8 points (this is called the spread).  So let's say you think Indy will win but the game will be closer than 8 points.  You would bet on the Jets.  Essentially your betting the Jets will do well enough to not be beaten by 8 points.  If the score was to end up Indy 20 and the Jets 14 then you would win your bet and I would lose mine.


Martin

I like Indy over the Jets at 7 1/2 points, and I like the Over on the Vikings / Saints game at 53 points.

With quarterbacks like Breeze and Farve, it could be a wild west shootout.

Can the Jets beat the Colts?

That depends on how long their contract with Satan extends.

My thought is that they probably sold their souls to make the playoffs and did a contract extention with the Prince of Darkness to win two playoff games.

Nate Keading hits virtually every fieldgoal in the regular season and makes the ProBowl...and then misses three times in one playoff game to give the Jets the win....

That's deal with Satan material right there.

Sniff around the stadium in Indianapolis...smell any sulphur?  Maybe just a whiff of brimstone?

Tharizdun wrote:
That's a deal with the bookie material as well  

Ah, bookies. Don't trust em.
Which is why I don't bet for money anymore.

BITD (mid 80s) a friend of mine had a bookie on speed dial on his "mobile phone" (yes, they had them back then, they were as big as a brick and about as nice looking), and would place bets for me when he did his own weekly betting.  This guy was straight out of the movie "Wall Street" and made a lot of dough in banking, which he then blew on booze, chicks, drugs, and gambling.  That year I was running a comfortable 60-65% correct while my supposedly professional friend was running under 50% (I always kept careful records just for my own edification).  The next year (I want to say it was 1988 or so) I was running a crazy 80% or so, just nuts, I was only betting games I was sure on and winning nearly everytime....my friend's betting average had dropped badly, and he was making tons of bets trying to win back money (chasing lost money is a gambling no-no).
Finally one weekend I bet a three team parley that would have netted me over $1000 for a $100 outlay.  My "friend" poo-poohed the bet because it was a long shot but I had gotten pretty good...I felt it was a sure thing. I gave him the money and he said he would make the bet.
Sure enough I hit the parley.  My friend wouldn't answer the phone.  Hell, the BOOKIE wouldn't answer the phone. Finally, a few days later my friend called me to say he made the bet but the bookie wouldn't pay off.  I said fine, he better pay or my next call was to the local PD to drop a dime on him. My friend panicked and said "No way dude, this guy will KILL you!". I said he was welcome to try, but in the meantime he would be dealing with the police, and if anything happened to me it appeared he would be the #1 suspect (I wasn't much scared of the bookie, he was kind of a stoner nerd).   My friend finally broke down and said he "forgot" to make the bet for me and that it was all his fault, he would give me back the $100...I was beyond pissed off and took the $100 back, but told the guy I wasn't making anymore bets and soon ended our friendship.

Later, this friend went to jail because he began taking collateral from girlfriends in the form of jewelry to make bigger and bigger bets, convincing them he'd "pay them back" once he won.  Unfortunately, he wouldn't pay them back after the pawned the jewelry and lost the money...and unfortunately for him, one of the girls he conned had given him a $15,000 family heirloon, and her brother was Fort Wort's assistant D.A.  He ended up getting six weeks in jail, had to pay back all his victims, and swore off gambling (and to make it funnier, HE had to drop a dime on his own bookie as part of a plea bargain....)
Many years later he admitted to me he had lied about not making the bet. He had made it, it came through, and he basically schemed with the bookie to give the money to him instead of me by shaving $500 off the payday, which the bookie was happy to do, in exchange for sticking to the "forgot to make the bet" story. Assholes.

You think I would learn my lesson, even though I don't bet for money anymore, but I bet a fanatical Redskin fan the last few years on the outcome of Redskins games, and won not one, not two, not three but FOUR cases of beer   ....which he has yet to pay a sixpack of.  Sign.

Mike B.

Prufrock wrote:The betting line today is: Indy -8 and the Saints -3.5.

I'm not sure what to make of the Saints line going down.

Martin

Favre Love.  If the QB was anyone else it would be going up.

Mike B.

http://www.skybet.com/skybet?action=GoEvType&id=229

This is where we (in the UK) can have a little flutter. Looks like there are a lot of choices, but as I haven't gone for NFL games before, they do list the points margin as well.

Odds look pretty crap though. 10/11